Loud motor noise and water leak: Bearings? Shaft seal?

Inground pool, 36k gallons, Hayward Sandfilter, Hayward pump SP2607X10, Magnatek (Century Centurian) B130 motor, 230v, 2HP, M56J.

Motor was noisy a month or so before closing for winter. It was more than a hum, kind of a grating sound. The noise persists, sometimes louder and sometimes not so much. Itt continues to be efficient but now there’s a leak. The valves are all tight and not the source. I suspect it’s leaking from the bottom - between the pump and motor.

Could this be because of ball bearings which can be remedied by changing the shaft seal? This is what the manufacturer’s manual recommends. Should I try this fix first and see if it solves the problem? If it doesn’t work, I could replace the motor. (In which case, the new shaft seal would already be in place).

If I upgrade to a variable speed motor, would it be the Century 2.7hp V Green? Other the shaft seal, do I need the tune up kit, impeller, and upgrade kit? (If so, it risks throwing my budget off the rails and, of course, the old lady’s ire…but what’s a man go to do?)

Here’s a link to a video of the sound and leak. WARNING: sorry, file size is big. https://app.box.com/s/mtbh8gkuj3zra10th2geitns164h7bof